NextGen Economics

When Congressional action in 2003 led to establishment of the Next Generation Air Transportation System/Joint Planning and Development Office (NextGen/JPDO) initiative, a key consideration, focal point, and catalyst for the mandate was and remains serious attention to and direct involvement of the aviation industry.  Reflecting a keen understanding of the value and importance of an effective government/industry partnership for achieving the transformational modernization of the aviation system, the JPDO has initiated outreach efforts with those industry officials responsible for economic modeling and analysis.

The goal of this collaboration is to incorporate a fair and comprehensive view of estimating benefits and costs into the NextGen business case.

The first meeting in this context was between the enlightened experts with JPDO and the Air Transport Association (ATA).  As hoped, and by design, the meeting proved fruitful from the perspective of all participants.  Of particular value was ATA’s input on JPDO’s performance metrics and cost estimates, such as the unit cost assumptions for equipage and an appropriate discount rate to use in discounting calculations.  An ATA suggestion concerning the use of block time volatility versus average delay in JPDO’s modeling and analysis efforts was appreciated, as well.  There was agreement to have additional meetings and continue related dialog in line with the JPDO objective of ensuring effective awareness of the views of the airline industry and all stakeholders.

Similar meetings of the mind among those with relevant expertise and insight are being arranged and will occur as a result of this outreach process.  Again, this will enable JPDO to touch the various elements of the aviation industry so that a healthy community of effort can contribute to understanding of and appreciation for the economic rationale that needs to be included in the formula for success affecting the immediate, mid-term, and, ultimately, long-term phases of the initiative.

Clearly, the NextGen/JPDO initiative is critically important because of the significant contribution of the aviation system to the American economy and societal experience.  Furthermore, if successful, it can also serve as a model for confronting other complex and essential challenges throughout government.  And, on these two points, it appears safe to observe that the responsible parties would agree.

Thoughts and Comments from Recent House Aviation Subcommittee Hearing

The Congressionally-mandated Next Generation Air Transportation System / Joint Planning and Development Office (NextGen/JPDO) was highlighted a number of times by government and industry officials as they testified during a hearing concerning the RTCA Mid-Term Implementation Task Force Report. The hearing was held on Wednesday, October 28, 2009, before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure Subcommittee on Aviation.  Several comments and observations were of particular interest and relevance, including the following:

Ed Bolen, President and CEO, National Business Aviation Association, and RTCA Policy Board Chairman, asserted that the JPDO provides us “magnetic North” relative to modernization and transformation of the aviation system as we focus on accelerating the process to affect the immediate and mid-term.

Neil Planzer, Vice President of Strategy for Air Traffic Management, The Boeing Company, who testified on behalf of the Aerospace Industries Association, responded to the suggestion of Congressman Thomas Petri (R-WI), the ranking minority member of the Subcommittee, that there should be reliance on the insight and resources of the Department of Defense and other government users of the system.  He stated that the JPDO has been and should continue to facilitate the coordination and collaboration of the government partners in this context, especially since it is a federal system …not just a civil system.

Jim May, President and CEO, Air Transport Association, emphasized that the NextGen initiative should be a national priority based on a positive business case, metrics and accountability … especially in light of the huge payback from infrastructure investment.  And, he stressed that his role as co-chair of the Institute Management Council (of the NextGen Institute) through the JPDO is a significant factor in this context.

While the testimony from Hank Krakowski, COO of the FAA’s Air Traffic Organization, focused on the primary topic of the hearing with specific attention to review and implementation of the RTCA task force recommendations, he did offer that the JPDO is focused on the longer term and the government partners.  As well, he stressed the key role going forward of the NextGen Management Board of which the JPDO Director is a member.

The chairs of the Committee and Subcommittee, Congressman Jim Oberstar (D-MN) and Jerry Costello (D-IL), each reiterated their strong interest in moving the NextGen initiative forward in line with the intent of the 2003 FAA authorization law, as well as the provisions in the reauthorization measure that has been approved by the full House and is still evolving in the U.S. Senate.  And, the two Congressional leaders added direction to the DOT Inspector General, the Government Accountability Office, and the aviation industry in general, to closely monitor the FAA’s progress in this regard.

To summarize this aspect of the hearing one can reflect on another point made by Congressman Petri.  He expressed the importance of not just addressing the immediate and mid-term, but that we also need to make sure we plan effectively for the more distant future.  He opined that he and we would “dread” a process that deals with current and nearer term needs, but, in years further ahead finds us experiencing a “Ground Hog Day” where we don’t have the modernization we need for the future.

Successful NextGen Weather Public Meeting

Last month, many JPDO Weather Working Group members traveled to the National Business Aviation Association (NBAA) Conference in Orlando, Florida to hold a NextGen Weather Public Meeting. The meeting was a tremendous success.

Steve Brown, Weather Working Group Industry Co-Chair and Mark Andrews, JPDO Assistant Director of Commerce and Weather Working Group Government Co-Chair, delivered the opening remarks. The leads of each JPDO Working Group formed a panel and presented their accomplishments for the year (to date). The meeting ended with a Q&A session between audience participants and the panel.

Acknowledging the effects to industry from the recent economic downturn, Mr. Brown opened the meeting with the call for more industry partners to participate. As the NextGen weather initiatives have moved from “weather capability planning” to implementation, this call will become more important with the need for private expertise in proof of concept demonstrations.

Mr. Andrews emphasized that while weather forecast accuracies have improved over the years, operational use and performance have not. He also underscored the cultural issues that need to be addressed with more consistent weather information. This still allows for different products but all based on the same data. Another important take-away from Mr. Andrews was that the weather community needs to show the improved value in the proactive use of weather on operations. He sees the value in strategic vice tactical applications and from a risk management focus. The demonstrations will need to support this.

Industry participants re-emphasized the desire to know what opportunities will be made available, when, and with whom. In a similar vein, some feel that there is a need to better delineate between what the government is going to do (GFI) and what industry will need to address.  Timing is becoming important. There is a need to soon realize these opportunities—otherwise, there will not be enough time to do anything.

A Special Invitation for Our Readers

Most of the blog entries on the JPDO blog site have been written by members of the JPDO staff.  The response, based on the number of daily visits to the blog  site, and the comments we’ve received, has been good.  But, we want to go beyond that a little bit and, as a result, are offering an “invitation to blog” to all of our readers.  Indeed,  this invitation is open to anyone in the NextGen/JPDO Community, or, simply, those who have an interest.

We’re asking for submissions focused on a particular topic.  In this case, we would welcome input, ideas, discussion of current research–whatever your focus–on the following:

“How should NextGen perform information exchange?  Specifically, how do we adopt a services-oriented approach to federating existing networks that accommodate transparent, timely, and safe exchange of authoritative data between all appropriate constituents of the National Airspace System (NAS)?”

To submit blog entries, please email us at: 9-awa-ato-jpdo-partnership@faa.gov

David Kerr
Director, JPDO Partnership Development Division

Update from JPDO’s IPSA Divsion

As of Oct. 2, 2009, the JPDO’s Interagency Portfolio and System Analysis (IPSA) Division has completed the vetting and review process of its Portfolio Analysis Report, including briefings to partner agencies (FAA, NASA, the Departments of Homeland Security and Defense,  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Department of Commerce, and the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy).  The feedback and comments received from the Federal partner agencies, through the medium of the Joint Planning Environment (JPE), have been addressed and incorporated into the report.  As the next step, the JPDO will be presenting the report to the Senior Staff Advisor for NextGen coordination at the Department of Transportation (DOT), who will review the report and its results along with the Office of the Chief Financial Officer at DOT.  After this review, the report will be submitted in its final form to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), coinciding with OMB’s independent review of agency budgets and passback.

IPSA has also been involved in the FY11 NextGen Interagency Budget Process.  On Sept. 23, 2009, the Senior Staff Advisor for NextGen coordination at DOT sent a memorandum to the Senior Policy Committee and JPDO Board Members requesting an FY11, NextGen cross-cut budget submission from partner agencies.  Agencies were required to submit their budget data to the JPDO by Sept. 28. The JPDO compiled all of the responses in a consolidated NextGen budget table and supporting forms,  and transmitted that information to DOT. Next, DOT will submit this information to OMB.

NASA Systems Engineering Award

NASA conducts an annual competition for a Systems Engineering Award, held in conjunction with the SAE Aero Design® Competition sponsored by the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE).

The contestants are teams of college students who design and construct radio-controlled model aircraft to vie for awards in three classes of flight competitions. The competition culminates in two, three-day flying events: Aero Design® West, being held in 2010 in Van Nuys, California, and Aero Design East®, being held in 2010 in Ft. Worth, Texas.

Participation in the NASA Systems Engineering Award competition is optional. It gives student teams participating in the SAE Aero Design® competition an opportunity to compete in applying best engineering practices. Winning teams receive a trophy and a $750 cash prize.

These practices are a subset of NASA Systems Engineering principles. The competing teams submit two written documents detailing the systematic tracking, control, and integration of the project’s design, construction, and testing.

Bob Pearce, Yuri Gawdiak, and George Price of the JPDO are acting for NASA in conducting this competition, including evaluation of Systems Engineering Reports from the participating teams.

For more information, go here.

Completion of Integrated Communications, Navigation and Surveillance (ICNS) Phase 2

On September 16, 2009, the Raytheon team and the government team held the final review of the ICNS study.  Phase 2 of the ICNS study focused on the analysis of the  four operational scenarios and use cases developed in Phase 1 of the study.  Analyses included:  the development of critical functional, performance and interoperability requirements and enablers; an assessment of the extent of change for ICNS operational improvements and enablers; the development of alternative ICNS architectures; and an analysis of the alternatives.  The analyses clearly identified the strong dependencies between the C, N, and S functionality and the NextGen operational capabilities.

The study showed that implementing NextGen capabilities, such as Trajectory Based Operations, Self Separation, Super Density Terminal Operations, depends on a highly reliable application of CNS resources. The current ICNS architecture provides single thread implementation of crucial information flows, and failure of any single element can have wide ranging impacts on the far-term NextGen system implementation.The analyses yielded a tremendous amount of useful information the JPDO can utilize to improve the Joint Planning Environment (JPE), and to work with stakeholder communities on specific topics of interest.

The all-day Phase 2 review was well attended by government team members as well as by representatives from the JPDO Working Groups.  The large group had a very lively and productive discussion of the analyses that were performed and certainly provided grist for the mill for additional study.  And beyond the specific results of the study, the Raytheon team also concluded:  “The Raytheon’s team’s success demonstrates the value of the JPDO’s Enterprise Architecture, Integrated Work Plan and the Joint Planning Environment”.

The ICNS study is available here.

Bob Pearce
JPDO Deputy Director

JPDO Papers from the AIAA ATIO Meeting Posted

The AIAA’s Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations Conference was held from September 21 – 23, 2009 in Hilton Head, NC.  This conference provides a preeminent venue for NextGen focused R&D with hundreds of papers spanning the scope of NextGen, providing an in-depth picture of the evolving state-of-the-art.

JPDO had two sessions at the conference with eight presentations and five papers.  The papers are posted to the JPDO’s Web site and can be downloaded from the Library, under the “Articles and Publications” heading and “2009″ sub-heading.  JPDO’s papers included a discussion of the JPDO model for interagency planning; an in-depth presentation of the Joint Planning Environment; the results of the analysis of high density airport operations; the framework, tools, and process for the latest JPDO Portfolio Analysis; and a look at the challenges posed by long-term strategic national initiatives.  The presentations (without papers) provided overviews of some of the latest efforts by the JPDO Working Groups–specifically NextGen Weather Information Systems, the NextGen Avionics Roadmap, and NextGen Safety Management.

Bob Pearce
JPDO Deputy Director

September Working Group Co-Chair Meeting

The September meeting of the Working Group Co-Chairs was held on September 9 at the JPDO.  The meeting focused on the Study Team approach that will be applied to a few of the scheduled FY10/11 Working Group Tasks (for those with KSN access, look here for a complete list of those tasks).  The Study Team concept is to advance high priority areas (e.g., Trajectory Based Operations, or TBO) that cross multiple Working Groups, using a scenario/use case process.  Study Teams will be organized under the JPDO Integration Manager and will include Subject Matter Experts (SME’s) from the Working Groups.  The SME’s participate in the process (workshops) to provide key expertise to develop content.  JPDO provides contractor support to facilitate the structured scenario/use case process, and develop the working documents.  The Study Team and Working Groups review all content.  The goal is to produce results that can be readily integrated back into NextGen planning products contained in the Joint Planning Environment (JPE).  Improved definition of far-term TBO will be the first Study Team to stand up and use this process.

The scenario/use case process provides an avenue for exploring topics of interest as to how the NextGen enterprise may operate at a relatively detailed level. For example, an operational scenario could be a commercial flight from a high density airport that encounters adverse weather and navigation failures en-route. The point of the scenario could be to explore the impact of off-nominal conditions and failure modes on the ability to execute trajectory based operations. Use case analysis techniques allow the scenario to be mapped to elements of the JPE, such as the Operational Improvements contained in the Integrated Work Plan (IWP). Once the detailed mapping is complete, various analyses can be executed. For example, validation analyses that may look for gaps and mis-alignments between what is required to execute the scenario and what the plan forecasts, the enterprise would be able to support. Other examples would be the derivation of more detailed performance targets, or robust analysis of alternative architectures. The findings of such analyses can then be put in the queue of the change management process for validating updates to the multi-agency NextGen Plan. Findings can also document technical, policy, organizational, or other issues that need further exploration through more in-depth research and analysis.

The Integrated Communications, Navigation and Surveillance Strategic Study that was recently completed developed and used the scenario/use case process to great success.  The Study Team briefing that provides greater detail of the scenario/use case process can be found here.

Bob Pearce
JPDO Deputy Director

JPDO History and Progress on Display at Special NextGen Events

Members of the Senior Policy Committee (SPC), including Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood, FAA Administrator Randy Babbitt, NASA Administrator Charles F. Bolden, Jr., and Deputy Secretary of Commerce Dennis F. Hightower, took advantage of the opportunity to learn more about the history, progress, and outreach capabilities of the JPDO during the Walkthrough NextGen Day event, held on September 14 at the U.S. Department of Transportation Headquarters building.

This one-day exhibit—which took place on the same day as the SPC Meeting—highlighted a number of important NextGen components, including System Wide Information Management (SWIM), Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B), and much more. Similarly, on September 17, Members of the Strategic Planning Advisory Review Cadre (SPARC) experienced a slightly scaled-down NextGen walkthrough during their conference at the Omni Shore Hotel in Washington D.C.

Video and oral presentations at both events emphasized the history and progress of the Congressionally mandated NextGen initiative.  In addition, JPDO representatives highlighted various means for “staying connected to the JPDO”—particularly through tools such as the Joint Planning Environment (JPE), JPDO Blog, JPDO Facebook Page, and JPDO Twitter Page.

JPDO representatives urged those visiting the exhibit, and who are interested in learning more about JPDO activities and developments, to visit the JPDO Web site (www.jpdo.gov), particularly if they want to access the JPE to review NextGen foundational documents (i.e., NextGen Concept of Operations, Enterprise Architecture, Integrated Work Plan), and more specifics relative to various enablers and operational improvements.

For more information about the JPE, or to access this tool, click here.